Abstract

A worldwide danger has been identified as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-2019), and many research have been carried out on different mathematical models to estimate how likely an epidemic could evolve. These mathematical models are susceptible to possible prejudices, depending on many variables and analyses. Here, we attempt to forecast the spread of COVID-2019 a simple econometric model. (Christian Democrats, 2020) This research was based on confirmation case reports from COVID-19 received daily from the www.MoHFH.gov.in official website between 6 March 2020 and 30 April 2020. The ARIMA model has been utilised for prediction of trends in confirmed cases. The outcome of the Dickey-Fuller increased unit root test indicates that the verified COVID-19 instances are stationary when the initial difference is taken into account. The ARIMA Automatic Prediction indicates that ARIMA was for India (4,2,0). This implies that there are 4 AR delays and 2 MA lags (Moving Average). The findings indicate that throughout this predicted time the instances of Confirm COVID-19 will continue to rise. We may estimate that will perhaps rise by 173 percent on 31 May 2020. The tendency for confirmed COVID-19 cases will deteriorate if the administration takes severe measures such as lockdown, curfew and quarantine. It will reach about 90,000 by the end of May.

Description