MODELING AND PREDICTING CYBER HACKING BREACHES (2023)
T. Sasi Vardhan, A. Rachana, B. Pallavi, B Udaysri, K. Sriya Chandrika JCR. 2023: 340-353
Analyzing cyber incident data sets is an important method for deepening our understanding of the evolution of the threat situation. This is a relatively new research topic, and many studies remain to be done. In this paper, we report a statistical analysis of a breach incident data set corresponding to 12 years (2005–2017) of cyber hacking activities that include malware attacks. We show that, in contrast to the findings reported in the literature, both hacking breach incident inter-arrival times and breach sizes should be modeled by stochastic processes, rather Than by distributions because they exhibit autocorrelations. Then, we propose particular stochastic process models to, respectively, fit the inter-arrival times and the breach sizes. We also show that these models can predict the inter-arrival times and the breach sizes. In order to get deeper insights into the evolution of hacking breach incidents, we conduct both qualitative and quantitative trend analyses on the data set. We draw a set of cyber security insights, including that the threat of cyber hacks is indeed getting worse in terms of their frequency, but not in terms of the magnitude of their damage.
This is an open access journal which means that all content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles in this journal without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. This is in accordance with the Budapest Open Access Initiative (BOAI) definition of open access.
The articles in Journal of Critical Reviews are open access articles licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the work is properly cited.
Copyright � 2021 Journal of Critical Reviews All Rights Reserved. Subject to change without notice from or liability to Journal of Critical Reviews.
For best results, please use Internet Explorer or Google Chrome
Journal of Critical Review, Tower 23/4,
Kuala Lumpur, malaysia